Policy Notes & Policy Papers

Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, Rita Fradique Lourenço, Hugo de Almeida Vilares

2023, Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos

Policy Paper

Policy paper (PDF) (4).pdf

Discussion Meeting with Major Stakeholders (Chathan House Rules)

Principais conclusões da reunião.pdf

Este policy paper da Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos, coordenado por Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, tem como objetivo analisar a evolução do mercado imobiliário no país – com um maior foco em Lisboa e no Porto – e propor estratégias para responder às dificuldades no acesso à habitação. A investigação olha para a dinâmica do mercado imobiliário português nos últimos anos, para responder a questões como:

Com este policy paper, a Fundação procura contribuir para um conhecimento mais profundo da evolução do mercado imobiliário em Portugal e facilitar a definição de políticas de habitação adequadas aos desafios que o país enfrenta.

English Translation of the synopsis of the policy paper:

Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, Rita Fradique Lourenço, Hugo de Almeida Vilares

2023, Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos

This policy paper by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation, coordinated by Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, aims to analyze the evolution of the real estate market in the country – with a greater focus on Lisbon and Porto – and propose strategies to respond to difficulties in accessing housing. The analysis looks at the dynamics of the Portuguese real estate market in recent years, to answer questions such as:

With this policy paper, the Foundation seeks to contribute to a deeper understanding of the evolution of the real estate market in Portugal and to facilitate the definition of adequate housing policies to the challenges that the country faces.

Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, Hugo de Almeida Vilares

2023, Cadernos de Economia

O mercado da habitação em Portugal atravessa desde pelo menos 2017 um período de significativa exuberância de preços, resultando num crescimento de 68,8% do índice de preços da habitação entre 2015 e 2021, e uma evolução homóloga de 13,5% no 3o trimestre de 2022. Esta significativa dinâmica contrasta de forma clara com crescimentos médios anuais de preços de menos de 1% nas duas décadas até 2007 e uma redução de 7% entre 2008 e 2015.

English Translation of the synopsis of the analysis:

Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, Hugo de Almeida Vilares

2023, Cadernos de Economia

The housing market in Portugal has been going through a period of significant price exuberance since at least 2017, resulting in a 68.8% growth of the house price index between 2015 and 2021, and a year-on-year evolution of 13.5% in the 3rd quarter 2022. This significant dynamic contrasts sharply with average annual price increases of less than 1% in the two decades up to 2007 and a reduction of 7% between 2008 and 2015.

CAD142-online (1).pdf

Hugo de Almeida Vilares

2015, Banco de Portugal Economic Studies

Unionism is in a profound crisis of alienation between trade unions and workers, which seriously compromises their legitimacy, and raises the reasonable doubt about their incentives. The reflection about ways to reverse this trend is then justified. If one can disagree on the chosen paths, the need to reflect causes little controversy. In this text, it is proposed that trade unions drop their monopoly to bargain and actively interconnect with workers councils in order to represent employees in a flexible manner in more firms. Furthermore, they should provide more useful services, and they may play a more relevant national role, necessarily founded in an enhanced representativeness.

Manuel Coutinho Pereira, Hugo de Almeida Vilares

2014, Banco de Portugal Economic Bulletin

This article examines the main developments of the pharmaceutical market in Portugal over the last decade. There has been a growth in the quantities traded and a reduction in retail prices, resulting from an intense legislative intervention. This price reduction has stalled expenditure on outpatient medicines, making it even possible some reduction in the last years. Such an evolution reflects a cutback in the economic rents of market agents, benefiting the National Health Service. The enhanced competition in the market segments open to generic drugs has contributed importantly to this outcome. The estimation of a demand function for pharmaceutical drugs indicates a relatively reduced price-sensitivity of quantities consumed, at the upper bound of the estimates in several studies for other countries. Furthermore, it is inferred that the resistance to the prescription of generics is waning as, holding constant other factors, prescribers already induce consumers to preferably acquire generics. In the future, a further increase in the penetration of generics is likely to take place by the extension of the range of active ingredients covered by them.


Pedro Portugal, Hugo de Almeida Vilares

2013, Banco de Portugal Economic Bulletin

The influence of trade unions’ activity in the Portuguese labor market is reviewed, resorting to the information provided by around 200 000 firms on the number of unionized workers. In particular, the membership determinants are studied; the workers’ wage benefit in more unionized firms is estimated; and the wages’ compositional changes, due to different levels of firm’s unionization, are revealed.As in other developed countries, Portugal has recorded a steady erosion of the union representation. For 2010, the estimate of the union density in the private sector of the economy is around 11 percent. The union presence is more important in sizeable firms, when the company’s equity is public, and in industries sheltered from competition. The unionized workers benefit from a substantial wage premium. In more unionized firms, this gap reaches levels above 30 percent, in contrast with non-unionized firms, with the same observed characteristics, that work in the same industry and region.